Factors we are considering in our rankings:
- Reelection margins over time: How much have they won by?
- Recent presidential results
- Demographic changes over time
- Voter registration trendsAre there more Democrats than there have been previously or more people who don’t want to identify with a political party?
- Overall fundraising picture How much money the incumbent has in the bank versus the strongest challenger, the rate at which the challenger is raising money and the total amount of money raised by challengers
- Terms in office Incumbency is a dominant predictor of election outcomes
- Primary vote performanceAfter the June primary, we will look at how the incumbents performed in the overall vote
- Wild cardsAmong the possibilities: Strength of challengers, scandals, controversial votes, unforeseen news events and Times reporting
Credits: Boxing glove by Swetha Kannan